I had an interesting chat with one of my Asian suppliers who I have worked with for many years. His organization (a group of many small manufacturers) are concerned because they feel that tariffs are going to significantly increase the costs to the US consumer, which of course slows down sales at their end.
He said that many small factories work with short-run contracts which are driven by the local manufacturing demand. Since their group services many larger manufacturers who are expecting a huge reduction in orders, so their group will probably be directed towards supporting other product lines, meaning that their usual products will not be manufactured.
I can see this being a sea-change for small manufacturers across the western economies too. Part shortages, price fixing, lower quality substitutes, etc.
And sadly, when I am affected by these increased costs, there is no option but for me to increase prices.
I have a question for the group though...
The manufacturer sells a product to an offshore buyer for say $100.
The buyer imports the product, paying shipping, duties, taxes and tariffs. $100 + 22% duty + 10% shipping + 80% tariff + 10% local tax = $265
The buyer adjusts the price of the product for the local market, accounting for all costs and profits. $241 + 50% = $397
The buyer sells the product to a retailer, who adds their 30% as usual.
397 + 50% = $595.
Before tariffs: $288. After tariffs: $595
How on earth does anyone think this is a 'tariff' not a consumer tax?